North Korea, an Update

I understand from US news sources that the North Korean "Question" dominates the news stateside. From the ways this story is reported, it seems that we are on some brink of Armageddon here.

To bring some necessary balance, let me offer a few mitigating remarks. These are my notes from remarks made this morning in my faith community - www.ilcseoul.net - by Foreign Ministry Spokesman CHO, T'ai Yong. Just below is a picture I took of him this morning, but you can also see another picture of him by clicking here.

 
1. The North Korean situation is on news-shows here every day. It is the topic of many conversations. While South Koreans take the North Korean dictator seriously, we do not see much evidence of folks changing their daily habits.

2. No one here is hoarding, practicing civil defense measures, running the banks, or acting like it's the end of the world. Just not happening.

3. Korea and its allies are still on high alert.

4. Dictator Kim in North Korea is not expected to do anything dangerous; he's not crazy, but he is young.

5. The South Korean policy remains one that (1) pressures and (2) seeks dialogue, to create mutual confidence.

6. Since this current "crisis" has gone on for an extended time, it is difficult to envision face-saving solutions to this situation.

7. Bottom line: the situation is "safe and stable." (Or in the words of my students, "I'll start to worry when the US Embassy says to worry.")

Now in my own voice, I feel led to respond to the an unfortunate editorial in the NYTimes on Saturday. Jeremi Suri argued for a small, strategic bombing of NK as "the best of bad options on the Korean peninsula." Written by one who claims expertise in diplomacy, it is actually an example of an impatient author, who does not understand the nuanced accents of diplomacy. If he got his wish, then my life here in Korea would be more endangered!

The unforeseen and unintended consequences of such a bombing would last far longer than this current crisis, and the USA would suffer, in injured, limping diplomacy, well into the next generation. The damage to Koreans' chances to reunite their nations would be pushed back years.

Can you say, "Bay of Pigs," Mr. Suri? 

Peace, actually,

Marc

What's Up With North Korea?

"The moment of explosion is approaching fast. No one can say a war will break out in Korea or not and whether it will break out today or tomorrow." - KIM Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 4 April 2013

President PARK Geun-Hye, 61 years old, 11th president of South Korea, first female in the post; assumed leadership two months ago; daughter of the well-known, but either well-loved or well-hated dictator in the 1960s and 1970s, PARK, Chung-hee, assassinated in 1979.		Supreme Leader of North Korea KIM Jong-Un, 29 or 30 years old; assumed leadership in December 2011. Son of last leader, and grandson of North Korea's founder and most famous leader: KIM Il-Sung.
On the surface, Kim uses a page from his late father's playbook: Scare the Western world with nuclear desctruction threats, in exchange for a desired outcome. This time, has Kim broken new ground? So what’s happening in North Korea? Why this latest episode? Why is it going on so long this time? Do we need to worry like our news sources tell us?
Q: Is the North Korean leader crazy?	A. Maybe not. He's inexperienced, and in a hard situation. He’s also had a protected life behind elite schools in Europe, and in front of way too-many video game screens. One Thesis: The world is now his video game, and like a teenager addicted to the screen, he doesn’t know when to call it quits.
Q: Do we take him seriously?	A: Yes and No. YES, taking him seriously is what he wants, so listening to him could inhibit his desire to do anything more crazy. NO, his abilities to deliver WMDs is there, but not impressive. He would be able to inflict significant first-strike damage. Within a few minutes of that first-strike, however, his abilities to wage further warfare would be rendered zero by the USA. But if we don't take him seriously, expect more craziness.
Q: Is there a chance of nuclear strikes?	A: Perhaps. However, according to some analysts, playing the nuclear card is a way to divert the average North Korean from focusing upon her empty stomach or his thin wallet.  Playing the nuclear card makes for bad brinksmanship as a foreign policy. Will someone send him the story in translation: Peter and the Wolf?
Q: What is the opinion of North Korea about South Korea.	A: I think it is pretty good. Read on.
Q: What is their opinion of the USA?	A: Since the USA has maintained the division of North and South Korea through treaty and military forces, I think the real enemy is the USA.
Q: Will there be armed conflict or war?	A: Don’t think so. My Korean associates and friends are not worried. There are no calls to civil defense or citizen-preparedness.
Q: Then why is this happening now?	A: THE Question! The best response I have heard is this: While this is clearly instigated by the North, the two new leaders need each other at the beginning of their tenures at their nations’ helms. Each is being heavily watched by hawks in their OWN administration for signs of weakness. Thus, each leader provides the other with the chance to look strong in front of her/his generals, military, and people.  Rule One: Don't ever lose face in front of your peers.
Q: What does KIM want?	A: Respect from the world, and respect from his comrades in his country. I don’t know if he’ll ever know respect when he gets it….
Q: Why is this crisis going on so long?	A: He’s young, the screen of his game does not tell him to shut down and give it a rest.  His opponent in South Korea is female. We don't know what his relationships are like to women around him. How long before he can declared his face is saved?
Q: Anything else?	A: Just this: North Korea is China’s proxy, however tortured that relationship is; and South Korea is the USA’s proxy, however strained that history is. The real-politik game is between China and the USA. I do not worry about waking up as nuclear ash as long as China and the USA are still talking.
Bottom Line: We are not too worried over here. I’ll let you know if that changes.

Thoughts? Objections? Hope you find the "Comments" Box!

Marc